Discuss the below in detail:
Q: At the end of their fiscal year, a consulting company wants a monthly forecast for the number of contracts next year. They collected monthly data from the last five years.
|
Year 1
|
Year 2
|
Year 3
|
Year 4
|
Year 5
|
|
Month 1
|
185
|
250
|
315
|
380
|
445
|
|
Month 2
|
169
|
229
|
289
|
349
|
409
|
|
Month 3
|
158
|
213
|
268
|
323
|
378
|
|
Month 4
|
170
|
230
|
290
|
350
|
410
|
|
Month 5
|
160
|
215
|
270
|
325
|
380
|
|
Month 6
|
113
|
153
|
193
|
233
|
273
|
|
Month 7
|
127
|
172
|
217
|
262
|
307
|
|
Month 8
|
99
|
134
|
169
|
204
|
239
|
|
Month 9
|
57
|
77
|
97
|
117
|
137
|
|
Month 10
|
90
|
120
|
150
|
180
|
210
|
|
Month 11
|
156
|
211
|
266
|
321
|
376
|
|
Month 12
|
231
|
311
|
391
|
471
|
551
|
If you were working for my consulting company, which set of forecasts would I accept as the best monthly forecasts for next year?
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Forecast (A)
|
Forecast (B)
|
Forecast (C)
|
Forecast (D)
|
(E) None of
the above
|
|
Month 1
|
663
|
510
|
315
|
410
|
|
|
Month 2
|
563
|
469
|
289
|
347
|
|
|
Month 3
|
476
|
433
|
268
|
295
|
|
|
Month 4
|
564
|
470
|
290
|
348
|
|
|
Month 5
|
479
|
435
|
270
|
297
|
|
|
Month 6
|
250
|
313
|
193
|
154
|
|
|
Month 7
|
317
|
352
|
217
|
195
|
|
|
Month 8
|
192
|
274
|
169
|
118
|
|
|
Month 9
|
63
|
157
|
97
|
39
|
|
|
Month 10
|
144
|
240
|
150
|
90
|
|
|
Month 11
|
474
|
431
|
266
|
293
|
|
|
Month 12
|
1010
|
631
|
391
|
626
|