Find chance that project will take longer than assigned date


When Ray Zalinski is planning the takeover of Callahan Auto Parts he puts together a project plan for merging the two companies. Zalinski wants to make sure that they can complete project on quickly so they can close the plant in Sandusky. As a result, he wants to know the percent chance that the project will take longer than 290 days. After many painful deliberations, they have determined all of the tasks required along with optimistic, most likely and pessimistic times for each path. They have also calculated the expected time for the critical path along with its standard deviation. They then calculated the Z value associated with their due date and the expected time and standard deviation of the critical path. Finally, they looked this value up in the Normal Table (or calculated it using Excel). The number returned was: 0.0489. Given this returned value, what is the percent chance that the project will take longer than the assigned due date. Round your final answer only.

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Operation Management: Find chance that project will take longer than assigned date
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