Assume you live next to food flavor factory that frequently smells of maple syrup. In specific, assume that you've been living next to this factory for exactly one non-leap year and that you've noticed this smell 200 times. Additionally, suppose that you've been exposed to Northrax once and you know, first hand, that it does smell like maple syrup. Additionally, suppose you are aware that it is impossible for Northrax not to smell like maple syrup.
Using Bayes' Theorem answer the following questions:
1. If you smell maple syrup, should you be concerned?
2. If you do not smell mayple syrup, should you be concerned?