AllCotton textiles has contracted to provide HappyKart clothing retail with T-shirts under the following terms: (1) 100,000 T-shirts will be delivered to HappyKart in one month, and (2) HappyKart has an option to take delivery of an additional 100,000 T-shirts in three months by giving AllCotton 30 days notice. HappyKart will pay $5.00 for each T-shirt that it purchases. AllCotton manufactures the T-shirts using a batch process, and manufacturing costs are as follows: (1) there is a fixed setup cost of $250,000 for any manufacturing batch run, regardless of the size of the run,and (2) there is a marginal manufacturing cost of $2.00 per T-shirt regardless of the size of the batch run. AllCotton must decide whether to manufacture all 200,000 T-shirts now or whether to only manufacture 100,000 now and manufacture
the other 100,000 T-shirts only if HappyKart exercises its option to buy those T-shirts. If AllCotton manufactures 200,000 now and HappyKart does not exercise its option, then the manufacturing cost of the extra 100,000 T-shirts will be totally lost. AllCotton believes there is a 50% chance HappyKart will exercise its option to buy the additional 100,000 T-shirts.
- Draw a decision tree for the decision that AllCotton faces.
- Determine the preferred course of action for AllCotton assuming it uses expected profit as its decision criterion.
- AllCotton has access to a corporate espionage firm that can exactly determine if HappyKart will be exercising the option. How much can AllCotton pay this firm for this information?