Tom Tucker, a robust 50-yr-old executive living in the northern suburbs of Toronto, has been diagnosed by a University of Toronto internist as having a decaying liver. Although he is otherwise healthy, Tucker's liver problem could prove fatal if left untreated.
Firm research data are not yet available to predict the likelihood of survival for a man of Tucker's age and condition without surgery. However, based on her own experience and recent medical journal articles, the internist tells him that if he elects to avoid surgical treatment of the liver problem, chances of survival will be approximately as follows: only a 60% chance of livinf one year, a 20% chance of surviving for two years, a 10% chance for five years, and a 10% chance of living to age 58. She places his probability of survival beyond age 58 without a liver transplant to be extremely low.
The transplant operation, however, is a serious surgical procedure. Five percent of patients die during the operation or its recovery stage, with an additional 45% dying during the first year. Twenty percent survive for 5 years, 13% survive for 10 years, and 8%, 5%, and 4% survive, respectively, for 15, 20, and 25 years.
Questions:
1. Do you think that Tucker should select the transplant operation? 2. What other factors might be considered?