After extensive research and development, Goodweek Tires, Inc., has recently developed a new tire, the SuperTread,and must decide whether to make the investment necessary to produce and market the SuperTread. The tire would be ideal for drivers doing a large amount of wet weather and o?-road driving in addition to its normal freeway usage. The research and development costs so far total about $10 million. The SuperTread would be put on the market beginning this year andGoodweek expects it to stay on the market for a total of four years. Test marketing costing $5 million shows that there is a signi?cant market for a SuperTread-type tire.
As a financial analyst at Goodweek Tires, you are asked by your CFO, Mr. Adam Smith, to evaluate the SuperTread pro ject and provide a recommendation on whether to go ahead with the investment. You are informed that all previous investments in the SuperTread are sunk costs and only future cash ?ows should be considered. Except for the initial investment (in production equipment and working capital) which will occurimmediately, assume all cash ?ows will occur at year-end.
Goodweek must initially invest $160 million in production equipment to make the SuperTread.The equipment is expected to have a seven-year useful life. This equipment can be sold for $65 million at the end of four years. Goodweek intends to sell the SuperTread to two distinct markets:
(a) The Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM) Market. The OEM market consists primarily of the large automobile companies (e.g., General Motors) who buy tires for new cars. In the OEM market, the SuperTread is expected to sell for $41 per tire. The variable cost to produce each tire is $29.
(b) The Replacement Market. The replacement market consists of all tires purchased afterthe automobile has left the factory. This market allows higher margins and Goodweek expects to sell the SuperTread for $62 per tire there. Variable costs are the same as in the OEM market.
Goodweek Tires intends to raise prices at 1 percent above the in?ation rate.1 Variable costs will also increase 1 percent above the in?ation rate. In addition, the SuperTread pro ject will incur $43 million in marketing and general administration costs the ?rst year (this ?gure isexpected to increase at the in?ation rate in the subsequent years).
Goodweek's corporate tax rate is 40 percent. Annual in?ation is expected to remain constantat 3.25 percent. The company uses a 13.4 percent discount rate to evaluate new product decisions. Automotive industry analysts expect automobile manufacturers to produce 6.2 million new cars this year and production to grow at 2.5 percent per year thereafter. Each new car needs fourtires (the spare tires are undersized and are in a di?erent category). Goodweek Tires expects the SuperTread to capture 11 percent of the OEM market.
Industry analysts estimate that the replacement tire market size will be 32 million tires this year and that it will grow at 2 percent annually. Goodweek expects the SuperTread to capture an 8 percent market share. You decide to use the MACRS depreciation schedule (seven-year property class), which is asfollows.
Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Depreciation % 14.29% 24.49% 17.49% 12.49% 8.93% 8.93% 8.93% 4.45%
You also decide to consider net working capital (NWC) requirements in this scenario. The immediate initial working capital requirement is $9 million, and thereafter the net workingcapital requirements will be 15 percent of sales. What will be the NPV, Payback Period, Discounted Payback Period, PI and IRR on this project?