Assignment Topic 1: International Trade Theory, rising protectionism and national strategic considerations
Background required: The perception of globalisation has been changed by the Covid-19 pandemic, with countries viewing more sectors as strategic.
Before the virus struck, opposition to free trade came from those who have lost out - notably manufacturing workers in rich countries - and those who dislike the pooling of sovereignty needed to eliminate trade barriers. Donald Trump, the US president. But the outbreak has illustrated some genuine downsides to global supply chains from a national strategic point of view, for example in health care supplies and food. Once the pandemic is under control, governments are likely to rethink and expand the list of domestic industries they consider essential, reducing the scope for trade.
- International trade patterns, global supply chains and potential fragmentation of the global economy
- Traditional trade theory, including classical theory (especially comparative cost theory) and Krugman's 'modern trade theory'.
- How traditional trade theory supports liberal (free) trade
- The arguments against 'free trade', especially those arising from 'national strategic considerations
- The extent to which national strategic considerations are now overriding the advantages of free trade proclaimed by traditional trade theory.
This topic has been redefined by the coronavirus outbreak, which has questioned reliance on global supply chains and international division of labour and adds a new dimension to the discussion of globalisation, but it does not necessarily lead to a conclusion that globalisation should be reversed.
Assignment Topic 2: Monetary Policy over the last Decade
Background required (please see updated lecture material on this topic (indicated by Version 2 or 3 etc). The key Paper for this is topic is Lecture 7c
- The role of central banks
- Conventional monetary policy tools - interest rates and money supply - and non-conventional ones - interest rates near or below zero, quantitative easing and forward guidance.
- Assessment of monetary policy, especially in relation to: economic growth, employment growth, inflation, asset prices and income distribution, growth of debt.
- Can central banks control financing conditions in the economy (pass through of monetary policy) and do financing conditions impact on real behavior - investment, consumption, saving - in the way desired by central banks?
- What changes are central banks thinking of making to their monetary policy tools?
This topic requires the incorporation of the Monetary Transmission Model
Assignment Topic 3: Dominance of the dollar in international trade and investment
Background required:
- How the US dollar is the dominant currency in cross-border trade transactions.
- The dollar as the global reserve currency
- Why the dollar remains the dominant currency including it being part of a liberal currency regime; offering efficiency as a single dominant currency; the importance of American consumers in the global economy; its backing by strong institutions trusted by governments and private market participants.
- How this dominance creates vulnerabilities for the real economy and complications for policy in both the US and around the world. For example: the US can finance large balance-of-payments deficits. A sudden shift away from the dollar would threaten dollar debt holdings. Its value influences dollar debt repayments in non-dollar currencies. Longer global supply chains rely more on dollars. The availability of dollar-denominated credit varies with the broad exchange rate. When dollars are cheap banks lend more freely, so a stronger dollar makes it more expensive to finance cross-border value chains, holding back trade growth. A stronger US dollar worsens the terms of trade for (non-US) trading countries and jeopardises the finances of emerging economies which tend to borrow in dollars. US domestic policymaking may be at cross-purposes with the rest of the world.
- Weaponisation of the dollar, with the US excluding businesses and countries from the dollar system to further foreign policy ends.
Assignment Topic 4: Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) risks to business and climate change.
- Define what ESG risks are
- Explain briefly the key evidence and measurements associated with climate change
- Explain briefly the characteristics of climate change that confront business with knowing how to respond
Most of your answer should be centered on discussions of the following:
- How environmental risks threaten the credit ratings of exposed businesses, with some assets that could be left stranded (for example oil companies, coal miners and conventional car engine producers), the threat from disruptive technologies and the costs of transition to lower carbon business models
- The regulatory and fiscal changes (including 'green taxes' and vehicle emissions limits) that are driving business responses, along with social pressures and pressures from investors
- The social risks that follow from changes in social perceptions and attitudes towards climate change
- The risks to financial institutions (banks, insurance companies and pension providers) that may come from exposure to businesses with damaging environmental footprints.
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