Discuss about multiplicative seasonal forecasting

Question

Assignment:

Topic :Multiplicative Seasonal forecasting

I determined the demand pattern to be seasonal for the product so I used the multiplicative seasonal method to forecast the product's demand.

The multiplicative seasonal method fits the data very well as each season has distinct seasonal factors. For instance, the seasonal factor for summer varies from 1.94 to 2.21 while fall varies from 0.48 to 0.73. The average seasonal factors also correlate with conventional wisdom concerning movie tickets sales in that the summer blockbuster season would have the highest sales. Demand falls in the fall and winter seasons, except for an uptick around the holidays when people are more likely to see movies in the theater. Finally, demand starts to pick back up in the spring with a few studios releasing major blockbusters in March and April.

According to this data, movie ticket sales are trending up year over year, however I wonder how much of this is attributed to rising ticket cost and not number of tickets sold. As more Americans utilize Netflix and other streaming services, movie ticket sales could be negatively impacted.

	Total Gross by Season (In Millions of Dollars)							Seasonal Factor							Average Seasonal Factor
	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
Winter	997	918	1244	865	1099	1118	1145	0.49	0.45	0.57	0.39	0.53	0.50	0.51	0.49
Spring	1627	1617	1649	1418	1484	1398	1792	0.80	0.80	0.75	0.65	0.71	0.63	0.79	0.73
Summer	4215	4327	4305	4851	4058	4461	4452	2.06	2.14	1.96	2.21	1.94	2.01	1.97	2.04
Fall	1081	1137	1143	1149	1522	1277	1088	0.53	0.56	0.52	0.52	0.73	0.58	0.48	0.56
Holiday	2293	2115	2618	2672	2272	2846	2804	1.12	1.05	1.19	1.22	1.09	1.28	1.24	1.17
Total	10212	10113	10960	10955	10436	11099	11280
Average	2042	2023	2192	2191	2087	2220	2256