Assignment:
Consider the data on new orders for computers and electronic products and the M1 money supply for the years 2011 through 2014.
|
Year
|
Month
|
New Orders for Computers and Electronic Products
|
M-1 Money Supply
|
|
2011
|
1
|
19222
|
1855.6
|
|
2011
|
2
|
20727
|
1874.7
|
|
2011
|
3
|
24893
|
1892.0
|
|
2011
|
4
|
19375
|
1897.8
|
|
2011
|
5
|
20152
|
1934.3
|
|
2011
|
6
|
25075
|
1947.0
|
|
2011
|
7
|
18615
|
2001.5
|
|
2011
|
8
|
21289
|
2112.9
|
|
2011
|
9
|
27014
|
2126.0
|
|
2011
|
10
|
22179
|
2137.4
|
|
2011
|
11
|
20761
|
2172.0
|
|
2011
|
12
|
27818
|
2168.2
|
|
2012
|
1
|
19447
|
2202.3
|
|
2012
|
2
|
23043
|
2212.2
|
|
2012
|
3
|
26734
|
2228.7
|
|
2012
|
4
|
21897
|
2245.3
|
|
2012
|
5
|
22403
|
2251.0
|
|
2012
|
6
|
24942
|
2262.3
|
|
2012
|
7
|
19365
|
2314.6
|
|
2012
|
8
|
20240
|
2346.5
|
|
2012
|
9
|
25478
|
2383.6
|
|
2012
|
10
|
20790
|
2415.5
|
|
2012
|
11
|
20362
|
2423.2
|
|
2012
|
12
|
27841
|
2457.7
|
|
2013
|
1
|
17393
|
2467.6
|
|
2013
|
2
|
18725
|
2470.4
|
|
2013
|
3
|
22919
|
2474.8
|
|
2013
|
4
|
19560
|
2511.0
|
|
2013
|
5
|
20333
|
2522.0
|
|
2013
|
6
|
24619
|
2517.9
|
|
2013
|
7
|
18065
|
2545.6
|
|
2013
|
8
|
18487
|
2557.3
|
|
2013
|
9
|
24877
|
2578.8
|
|
2013
|
10
|
20410
|
2620.2
|
|
2013
|
11
|
20194
|
2622.2
|
|
2013
|
12
|
24955
|
2654.5
|
- Using the data for computer and electronic products, develop a three-period MA(3), four-period MA(4), and five-period MA(5) moving average forecasts.
- Using the same data, develop a weighted moving average forecast where the weight of the most recent data (t-1) is 0.55, 0.20 for period (t-2), 0.15 for period (t-3), and 0.10 for period (t-4).
- Using the same data, develop exponential smoothing forecasts with an alpha (a) of 0.75 and 025. Assume the first month forecast is the same as the actual data.
- Using the same data, develop a time-series trend forecast using regression analysis.
- Using the same data, develop a causal model forecast using the M1 Money Supply data as the independent variable.
- Using either MSE or MAD, determine which forecast is best.
Your answer must be typed, double-spaced, Times New Roman font (size 12), one-inch margins on all sides, APA format and also include references.