Question: Consider the following time series data:
Week 1 2 3 4 5 6
Value 18 13 16 11 17 14
a. Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the data?
b. Develop a three-week moving average for this time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7.
c. Use a 5 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7.
d. Compare the three-week moving average forecast with the exponential smoothing forecast using a 5 0.2. Which appears to provide the better forecast based on MSE? Explain.
e. Use trial and error to find a value of the exponential smoothing coefficient a that results in a smaller MSE than what you calculated for a 5 0.2.