Assignment:
|
Quarter
|
Year 1
|
Year 2
|
Year 3
|
Year 4
|
|
1
|
49
|
60
|
75
|
90
|
|
2
|
120
|
140
|
180
|
260
|
|
3
|
310
|
380
|
430
|
510
|
|
4
|
620
|
710
|
900
|
1020
|
1. Develop a time series plot. What pattern exists in the data?
2. Develop a moving average model with k = 3.
3. Develop an exponential smoothing model with alpha = 0.2.
4. Develop a linear regression model with time and sales. (do not use quarters, time =1,2,3,.... 16)
5. Develop a regression model with quarters. Use 3 dummy variables for quarter 1, 2 and 3 respectively.
6. Compare the models built in question 2,3,4 and 5 using MAE, MSE and MAPE. Identify the best model.