Develop a conceptual model for the following scenario:
SCENEARIO: Incidence of smoking in movies has started to increase again, after having declined for several decades. According to the National Cancer Institute, smoking is seen in at least three out of four contemporary box-office hits. What's more, identifiable cigarette brands appeared in about one-third of all movies in 2008. Exposure to smoking in movies is an important predictor of adolescent smoking initiation: smoking in movies has been shown to affect adolescents' intention to start smoking. In turn, the intentions to start smoking are determined by a more positive attitude toward smoking after seeing a film character smoke. Recent research has revealed that the relationship between seeing a film character smoke and the attitude toward smoking is stronger when a person's identification with a film character increases. These findings are consistent with social learning theory, which predicts that attitudes and behaviors are modeled by observing the behaviors of others.