Problem:
The time estimates were made at the 90 percent level (see Section 5.2, Calculating Probabilistic Activity Times subsection). All activity times are in days.
|
Activity
|
Predec.
|
Opt.
|
Normal
|
Press
|
|
a
|
--
|
5
|
6
|
9
|
|
b
|
--
|
4
|
4
|
6
|
|
c
|
--
|
7
|
9
|
15
|
|
d
|
a
|
6
|
6
|
6
|
|
e
|
b
|
4
|
5
|
7
|
|
f
|
b
|
12
|
16
|
17
|
|
g
|
c
|
8
|
12
|
20
|
|
h
|
c
|
7
|
9
|
16
|
|
i
|
d, e
|
10
|
14
|
18
|
|
j
|
f, g
|
6
|
12
|
20
|
|
k
|
h
|
7
|
9
|
14
|
Given this project simulate the completion of the project 1000 times, assuming that the activity times are at the 99+ percent level and follow a triangular distribution.
Required:
Question 1) Determine the probability of each path becoming the critical path.
Question 2) What is the probability that the project is completed in 32 days? In 34 days? In 38 days?
Solve the given numerical problem and illustrate step by step calculation.