APPLICATION- Markov Analysis and Forecasting
The Doortodoor Sports Equipment Company sells sports clothing and equipment foe amateur, light sport (running, tennis, walking, swimming, badminton and golf) enthusiasts. It is the only company in the nation that does this door-to-door; seeking to bypass the retail sporting goods store and sell directly to the customer. Its salespeople have sales kits that include both sample products and a full-line catalog they can use to show the products and discuss them with customers. The sales function is composed of full-time and part-time salespeople (level 1, assistant sales managers (level 2) and regional sales managers (level 3.)
The company has decided to study the internal movement's patterns of people in the sales function, as well as forecast their likely availabilities in future time periods. The results will be used to help identify staffing gaps. (Surpluses and short ages), and to develop staffing strategy and plans for future growth
To do this, the HR department first collected data for 2013 and 2014 to construct a transition probability matrix, as well as the number of employees for 2015 in each job category. It then wanted to use the matrix to forecast availability for 2016. The following data were gathered:
Transition Probabilities |
|
|
(2013-14) |
Current(2015) No. Employees |
| Job Category |
Level |
SF |
SP |
ASM |
RSM |
Exit |
| Sales, Full-time(SF) |
1 |
0.5 |
0.1 |
0.05 |
0 |
0.35 |
500 |
| Sales, Part-time(SP) |
1 |
0.05 |
0.6 |
0.1 |
0 |
0.25 |
150 |
| Ass't. Sales Mgr. (RSM) |
2 |
0.05 |
0 |
0.8 |
0.1 |
0.05 |
50 |
| Region. Sales Mgr. (RSM) |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0.7 |
0.3 |
30 |
Use these data to answer the following questions:
1. Describe the Internal labor maker of the company in terms of job stability (staying in same Job), promotion paths and rates, transfer paths and rates, demotion paths and rates and turnover (exit) retes.
2. Forecast the numbers available in each job category in 2016.
3. Indicate potential limitations to your forecasts.