Question
Demand for cameras at Best Buy had the following demand (in thousands) history by quarters over a three-year period.
|
2012
|
Demand
|
2013
|
Demand
|
2014
|
Demand
|
|
1
|
14
|
1
|
18
|
1
|
16
|
|
2
|
27
|
2
|
34
|
2
|
47
|
|
3
|
78
|
3
|
73
|
3
|
86
|
|
4
|
54
|
4
|
64
|
4
|
49
|
The Multiplicative seasonal relatives for the four quarters are given to be: QI 0.35 Q2=0.83 Q3=1.67 Q4=1.26
The Additive seasonal relatives for the four quarters are given to be:
Q1=-31.5 Q2 = -8.18 Q3 = 30.13 Q4 =12.25
a) Using yearly demands from 2012-2014 and a 3-year weighted moving average, with weights of 0.5, 0.3 and 0.2 (using 0.5 for the most recent year), to forecast the yearly demand for 2015.
Following this, calculate the forecast of demand for each quarter of 2005 using the seasonal factors Show calculations for both multiplicative and additive seasonal relatives.
b) Using a Linear Trend equation, 20 + 6t, and the Seasonal relatives for the four quarters given above, calculate the Forecast for Quarters 1, 2, 3, 4 of Year 2015 (using both Multiplicative model and Additive Model)