Define a problem statement which reflects the challenge

Question

Individual Case Assignment: Cutting Edge

Questions -

Part 1 Questions:

Question 1a: Define a problem statement which reflects the challenge facing Mark as he planned for the opening of the new center.

Question 1b: Why was Mark's initial forecast of call volume so far off?  What could have been the reasons for this?

Question 1c: What could Mark have done differently to improve his initial forecast?

Part 2 Questions:

Question 2: Describe the details of each forecasting method used by Harry and explain its accuracy (MAD value) in comparison with the accuracy of the other methods.  (Hint: In answering this question, it is helpful to review a time-series plot of the 13 weeks of data.)

2a) Last Value

2b) Averaging

2c) Moving Average (5 days)

2d) Exponential Smoothing (alpha = 0.1)

2e) Exponential Smoothing (alpha = 0.5)

Part 3 Questions:

In answering the Part 3 questions, you should download and refer to Student Data File No. 2 which contains the historical data that you will need to answer the questions.

Question 3a: Prepare a forecast of call volume for July 2015 by applying Exponential Smoothing (with alpha = 0.5) to the prior 18 months of data.  Use the appropriate Excel template from the Hillier text to prepare your forecast and assume that initial call volume is 24,000.  Show your forecast below and attach the completed Excel template.

Call Volume Forecast for July 2015 (Exponential Smoothing, alpha=0.5): _________________

Question 3b: Apply Linear Regression to predict call volume from head count using the appropriate Excel template.  Show your forecast below and attach the completed Excel template.

Call Volume Forecast for July 2015 (Causal Forecasting based on head count): _________________

Question 3c: Calculate the Mean absolute deviation value of the Exponential Smoothing model (Question 3a) and the Average Estimation Error of the Linear Regression model (Question 3b).  Explain the difference between these two values.

Mean absolute deviation of Exponential Smoothing model, alpha=0.5: ______________________

Average Estimation Error for Causal Forecasting model based on headcount: __________________

Explanation of the difference in values:

Question 3d: Considering your answers to Questions 3a, 3b and 3c and all the factors that have been described above, prepare your best forecast for July 2015.  Show your forecast value below and explain and justify how you came up with this forecast.

Call Volume Forecast for July 2015 (My forecast): _________________

Explanation and Justification of Your Method:

Attachment:- Assignment Files.rar