Assignment:
1. The following data are monthly sales of jeans at a local department store. The buyer would like to forecast sales of jeans for the next month, July.
• (a)Forecast sales of jeans for March through June using the naïve method, a two-period moving average, and exponential smoothing with an α = 0.2. (Hint: Use naïve to start the exponential smoothing process.)
• (b)Compare the forecasts using MAD and decide which is best.
• (c)Using your method of choice, make a forecast for the month of July.
|
Month
|
Sales
|
|
January
|
45
|
|
February
|
30
|
|
March
|
40
|
|
April
|
50
|
|
May
|
55
|
|
June
|
47
|
1. Jack, the owner and manager of Jack's Box Company, wants to monitor usage, which is a bottleneck in the system. He has collected data on the planned and actual input and output.
|
Input Information (in hours)
|
|
|
4
|
5
|
6
|
7
|
8
|
|
Planned input
|
40
|
50
|
50
|
60
|
60
|
|
Actual input
|
45
|
45
|
45
|
55
|
60
|
|
Deviation
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Cumulative deviation
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Output Information (in hours)
|
|
|
4
|
5
|
6
|
7
|
8
|
|
Planned output
|
70
|
70
|
70
|
70
|
70
|
|
Actual output
|
60
|
60
|
60
|
60
|
60
|
|
Deviation
|
|
|
|
|
|
Deviation
Cumulative deviation
• (a)Complete the input/output record.
• (b)Describe your concerns based on the results of the input/output analysis.
2. Since Jack believes that Work Center 3 is his bottleneck, he has asked you to do the following:
• (a)Calculate the percentage of planned output needed to complete the planned inputs (planned input + backlog/planned output)
• (b)Calculate the percentage of planned input that actually happened (actual input + backlog/planned input + backlog).
• (c)Calculate the percentage of available output that was actually accomplished (actual output/planned output)
• (d)Given your results, do you believe that Jack is correct in assuming that Work Center 3 is his bottleneck? Justify your answer