Emergency calls to Winter Park, Florida's 911 system, for the past 24 weeks are as follows:(a) Compute the exponentially smoothed forecast of calls for each week. Assume an initial forecast of 50 calls in the first week and use smoothing constant for forecasts=0.1 What is the forecast for the 25th week? (b) Reforecast each period using smoothing constant for forecasts= 0.6 (c) Actual calls during the 25th week were 85. Which smoothing constant provides a superior forecast?
| Week |
Calls |
Week |
Calls |
Week |
Calls |
| 1 |
50 |
9 |
35 |
17 |
55 |
| 2 |
35 |
10 |
20 |
18 |
40 |
| 3 |
25 |
11 |
15 |
19 |
35 |
| 4 |
40 |
12 |
40 |
20 |
60 |
| 5 |
45 |
13 |
55 |
21 |
75 |
| 6 |
35 |
14 |
35 |
22 |
50 |
| 7 |
20 |
16 |
25 |
23 |
40 |
| 8 |
30 |
16 |
55 |
24 |
65 |