Consider using simple moving average model. Experiment with models using five weeks' and three weeks' past data. The past data in each region is given in the tab "Moving Average Analysis," that also includes the 13 week data (table above) along with the past 5 weeks'. Evaluate the forecasts that would have been made over the past 13 weeks (week 1 to week 13) using the "mean absolute deviation" and "tracking signal " as criteria.