Problem
A restaurant wants to forecast its weekly sales. Historical data (in dollars) for fifteen weeks are shown below. Use Excel and the Moving Average template to answer the following questions.
|
Time Period
|
Observation
|
|
1
|
1,667
|
|
2
|
1,658
|
|
3
|
1,361
|
|
4
|
1,262
|
|
5
|
1,140
|
|
6
|
1,353
|
|
7
|
1,582
|
|
8
|
1,361
|
|
9
|
1,309
|
|
10
|
1,579
|
|
11
|
1,492
|
|
12
|
1,546
|
|
13
|
1,666
|
|
14
|
1,548
|
|
15
|
1,356
|
1) What is the forecast for week 16, using a two-period moving average?
2) What is the forecast for week 16, using a three-period moving average?
3) Compute MSE for the two- and three-period moving average models to determine the best model. Do not round intermediate calculations.