Compute a 5-month moving average forecast for june through

Question

1. The Harley-Davis motorcycle dealer in the Minneapolis St. Paul area wants to be able to forecast accurately the demand for the Roadhog Super motor cycle during the next month. From sales records, the dealer has accumulated the data in the following table for the past year.

Month	Sales
January	9
February	7
March	10
April	8
May	7
June	12
July	10
August	11
September	12
October	10
November	14
December	16

a) Compute a 5-month moving average forecast for June through January.

2. The Chairperson of the Department of Business Administration at TSU wants to forecast the number of students who will enroll in Operations Management next semester in order to determine how many sections to schedule. The chair has accumulated the following data on enrollment for the past 8 semesters:

Semester	Students Enrolled in OM
1	270
2	310
3	250
4	290
5	370
6	410
7	400
8	450

a) Compute an exponentially smoothed forecast for semester 9 (next semester) with α= 0.30. Use 270 as the forecast for the1st semester.

3. The manager of Sarah's Ice Cream store needs an accurate forecast of the demand for ice cream. She has collected the following data for the past 10 weeks:

Week	Temperature	Ice Cream Gallons Sold
1	75	95
2	67	90
3	83	125
4	89	150
5	77	85
6	80	115
7	84	110
8	92	145
9	89	130
10	65	100

a) Develop a regression equation for this data.

4. Temco Industries has developed two forecasting models that were used to forecast during a ten-month period. The forecasts and actual demand are shown as follows:

a) Determine which forecasting model is more accurate using MAD.

	Actual	Forecast 1	2
Month	Demand	Demand	Demand
1	160	170	165
2	150	165	157
3	175	157	166
4	200	166	183
5	190	183	186
6	220	186	203
7	205	203	204
8	210	204	207
9	200	207	203
10	220	203	210