You have become concerned about the amount of copier paper used in your office after repeatedly running out of supplies. Your assistant keeps track of the number of reams (packages of 500 sheets) for 24 weeks:
|
Week
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
5
|
6
|
7
|
8
|
9
|
10
|
11
|
12
|
|
Reams of paper
|
232
|
263
|
271
|
248
|
235
|
261
|
207
|
243
|
237
|
293
|
243
|
260
|
|
Week
|
13
|
14
|
15
|
16
|
17
|
18
|
19
|
20
|
21
|
22
|
23
|
24
|
|
Reams of paper
|
253
|
270
|
230
|
253
|
238
|
272
|
222
|
243
|
289
|
238
|
262
|
234
|
a. Compare the effectiveness of two-week, four-week, and six-week moving averages. Which should you use to forecast copier paper use during the next week?
b. Compare the performance of the simple exponential smoothing model with smoothing constants of 0.01, 0.05, and 0.25. Assume a forecast for week 1 of 230 reams. Which constant worked best?