Problem
• Calculate a forecast using a simple three-month moving average.
• Calculate a forecast using a three-period weighted moving average. Use weights of 0.60, 0.30, and 0.10 for the most recent period, the second most recent period, and the third most recent period, respectively.
• Calculate a forecast using the exponential smoothing method. Assume the forecast for period 1 is 9,500. Use alpha = 0.40.
Once you have calculated the forecasts based on the above data, determine the error terms by comparing them to the actual sales for 2012 given below:
• Based on the three methods used to calculate a forecast for TFY, which method produced the best forecast? Why? What measures of forecast error did you use? How could you improve upon this forecast.
The response must include a reference list. Using one-inch margins, double-space, Times New Roman 12 pnt font and APA style of writing and citations.