Problem
Assume that today is December 29, 2021, and that the daily data regarding COVID-19 cases in Thailand are as follows.
Number of new infections on December 29, 2021: 7,057
Number of new recoveries (healed patients) on December 29, 2021: 7,393
Number of infected patients under treatment on December 29, 2021 (net after taking into account the number of new infections and new recoveries above): 95,413
Percentage of vaccinated population (cumulative) on December 29, 2021: 45.80%
NOTE: The information above implies that number of infected patients under treatment on December 28, 2021 was 95,413 - 7,057 + 7,393 = 95,749.
Because the Thai government have been actively vaccinating more and more people, we expect that the number of new infections will gradually decrease and that the number of infected patients will also eventually decrease.
Assume that the number of the new infections for each day will be equal to the number of new infections of the previous day multiplied by a random factor. In particular, let this factor be normally distributed with a mean of 0.90 and a standard deviation of 0.07.
(For example, if for December 30, 2021, the randomly generated number between 0 and 1 for the normal distribution is 0.716. Then the factor according to the specified normal distribution will be 0.940. And, consequently, the number of new infections on December 30, 2021 will be 0.940*7,057 = 6,633.)
The number of new recoveries in each day depends on the number of infected patients on the previous day. More specifically, on each day, each infected patient has a probability of 0.2 in being healed according to a binomial distribution.
(For example, if for December 30, 2021, the randomly generated number between 0 and 1 for the binomial distribution is 0.273. Then the number of new recoveries on December 30, 2021 will be 19,008 - out of the 95,413 infected patients on December 29, 2021.)
The percentage of vaccinated population increases daily according to a uniform distribution from 0.5% to 3%.
(For example, if for December 30, 2021, the randomly generated number between 0 and 1 for the uniform distribution is 0.942. Then, the increase in percentage of vaccinated population will be 2.86%. Subsequently, the (cumulative) percentage of vaccinated population will be 45.80% + 2.86% = 48.66% on December 30, 2021.)
Build a simulation model using Excel to run 1,000 iterations for the possible number of new infections, new recoveries, infected patients under treatment, and the percentage of vaccinated population on December 31, 2021.Assume that today is December 29, 2021, and that the daily data regarding COVID-19 cases in Thailand are as follows.
Number of new infections on December 29, 2021: 7,057
Number of new recoveries (healed patients) on December 29, 2021: 7,393
Number of infected patients under treatment on December 29, 2021 (net after taking into account the number of new infections and new recoveries above): 95,413
Percentage of vaccinated population (cumulative) on December 29, 2021: 45.80%
NOTE: The information above implies that number of infected patients under treatment on December 28, 2021 was 95,413 - 7,057 + 7,393 = 95,749.
Because the Thai government have been actively vaccinating more and more people, we expect that the number of new infections will gradually decrease and that the number of infected patients will also eventually decrease.
Assume that the number of the new infections for each day will be equal to the number of new infections of the previous day multiplied by a random factor. In particular, let this factor be normally distributed with a mean of 0.90 and a standard deviation of 0.07.
(For example, if for December 30, 2021, the randomly generated number between 0 and 1 for the normal distribution is 0.716. Then the factor according to the specified normal distribution will be 0.940. And, consequently, the number of new infections on December 30, 2021 will be 0.940*7,057 = 6,633.)
The number of new recoveries in each day depends on the number of infected patients on the previous day. More specifically, on each day, each infected patient has a probability of 0.2 in being healed according to a binomial distribution.
(For example, if for December 30, 2021, the randomly generated number between 0 and 1 for the binomial distribution is 0.273. Then the number of new recoveries on December 30, 2021 will be 19,008 - out of the 95,413 infected patients on December 29, 2021.)
The percentage of vaccinated population increases daily according to a uniform distribution from 0.5% to 3%.
(For example, if for December 30, 2021, the randomly generated number between 0 and 1 for the uniform distribution is 0.942. Then, the increase in percentage of vaccinated population will be 2.86%. Subsequently, the (cumulative) percentage of vaccinated population will be 45.80% + 2.86% = 48.66% on December 30, 2021.)
Build a simulation model using Excel to run 1,000 iterations for the possible number of new infections, new recoveries, infected patients under treatment, and the percentage of vaccinated population on December 31, 2021.