Foreign policy experts estimate that the probability is 0.65 th at war will break out nex1 year between two Middle East countries if either side significantly escalates its terrorisr activities: Otherwise, the likelihood of war is estima ted to be 0.05. Based on what has happened this year, the chances of tertorism reaching a critical level in the next twelve mon ths are though t to be three i n ten. Wha t js the probability that the two countries will go to war?