Task: Moss Fertilizers
Data collected on the yearly demand for 50-pound bags of fertilizer at Moss are shown:
| Year |
Demand (in 1000s) |
| 1 |
4 |
|
| 2 |
6 |
|
| 3 |
4 |
|
| 4 |
5 |
|
| 5 |
10 |
|
| 6 |
8 |
|
| 7 |
7 |
|
| 8 |
9 |
|
| 9 |
12 |
|
| 10 |
14 |
|
| 11 |
15 |
|
Q1. Develop a three-year moving average forecast to predict sales for years 4 through 12. Is the forecasting method used appropriate for the data? Why or why not?
Q2. Use any computer program to develop a trend equation. Find the projected sales in years 12 and 13. Is the forecasting method used appropriate for the data? Why or why not?
Compute output 2 Excel worksheets. Alternatively, you can show manual calculations. Note that trend projection is a time-series model and the independent variable should be time, which is year in this problem.
Analysis/discussion. Show detailed calculations.