Around 130 million voters participated in the 2012 U.S. presidential election. Imagine that you are deciding whether to vote in the next presidential election.
What do you think is the probability that your vote will determine the outcome of the election?
Is it greater than 1%, between 1% and 0.1%, between 0.1% and 0.01%, or less than 0.01% (i.e., less than 1 in 10,000)?