Analyzing Supply Chain Using Tools:
John and Michael know that to be successful they need to properly staff their company and order the right amount of materials, and to do so, a new forecast method is needed. While they have used a simple forecast up to this point, they no longer believe that method will work for them and the company. They are now coming to you for help in selecting the right forecasting method and to develop an initial forecast.
Individual portion:
The first step in this project requires each member to research and select a relatively new company for which he or she will use as a benchmark. After researching your selected company, come up with a recommendation, for them, on which type of forecasting method they should use and why. Based on the recommendation, you must create a spreadsheet with a 12-month forecast highlighting the key factors used in its development. Your spreadsheet may also contain assumptions that support your argument.
For the Individual Portion of the Group Project, you must submit a spreadsheet consisting of 1,200-1,500 words in which you recommend a specific method of forecasting for your selected company. For full-credit, you must address the following in your spreadsheet:
• Research and select a relatively new company.
• Explain the various methods of forecasting to develop an aggregate forecast.
• Explain which type of forecasting method the company should use and why.
• Create a spreadsheet with a 12-month forecast highlighting the key factors used in its development.
• Explain why you chose the method that you did.
• Provide some assumptions that support your argument.
Group portion:
For the Group Portion of the Project, each team member should share his or her ideas and recommendations from the Individual Portion of the Project using the Small Group Discussion Board. Each member should submit their own ideas and recommendations while the group makes and educated consensus on which forecast method is the best. After the forecast method has been chosen by consensus, the group should discuss the pitfalls of the method and determine the consequences of using an inaccurate forecast.
For the Group Portion of the project, the group must submit a report consisting of 900-1,200 words in which they discuss the pitfalls of the selected forecast method chosen. For full-credit, the group must address the following in their report:
• Explain the chosen forecast method in detail.
• Explain the pitfalls of the selected forecast method.
• Determine the consequences of using an inaccurate forecast.
• Explain why forecasts are always wrong and how the selection of different forecast types might mitigate forecast error.
• Explain each member’s ideas/recommendation in detail.
• Explain how the group came to a consensus on the selected forecasting method.
• Explain if the selected forecast method would help, John and Michael get Stone Horse Supply Company off and running.