Assignment:
Overview
The Part 2 of Assignment 2 focuses on data analysis and interpretations of demographic measures that you have learned in the past few weeks. Please be advised that this assignment is to be completed as an individual piece of work. Thus, students are expected to complete all questions independently. Penalties for cheating or plagiarism can be severe (e.g. zero mark for the most severe cases).
Assessment
The Assignment 2 Part 2 is worth 15% of the total marks for the unit. Total raw marks = 50. Marks for each question are given in square brackets. For any data analysis questions, the answers should include necessary working steps (e.g. you may refer to tutorial exercises/ solutions for format). Any correct answers without necessary working steps will not be awarded full marks.
Q1. Population Projection
The estimated numbers of males in Vietnam by age on 30/6/2015 and net migration in 2020 are presented in Table A. Some values from the Tx columns of an abridged life table (l0 = 100,000) for Vietnamese females and males (2012-2015) are presented in Table B.
The estimated numbers of females in Vietnam in reproductive age groups on 30/6/2015 and on 30/6/2020, and the age specific fertility rates (per 1,000) for Vietnamese women in 2015 are presented in Table C
The projection of Vietnamese male population assumes that throughout the period from 2015 to 2020:
- Mortality is constant at the levels described by Vietnamese male life table in 2012- 2015 as presented in Table B.
- In 2020, all age-specific fertility rates are 5% higher than their 2015 values.
- The sex ratio at birth is 110 males per 100 females.
- Net international migration of males to Vietnam is such that the additions (or subtractions) to the various age groups in 2020 for the effect of net male migration are presented in Table A.
Using the information and assumptions provided above and on the previous page, calculate the following:
(Note: all proportions or probabilities in projections should be given to 5 decimal places)
1. The projected numbers of Vietnamese males in each of all age groups in 2020.
2. Using information provided and assuming that in 2020 all age-specific fertility rates are 5% higher than their 2015 values and mortality is constant at the levels described in Table B, calculate:
i) Total Fertility Rate in 2015 and 2020;
ii) Gross Reproduction Rate (GRR) in 2015 and 2020;
iii) Net Reproduction Rate (NRR) in 2015 and 2020.
3. Analyse the results of your projected Vietnamese male population in 2020, describing any changes from 2015 to 2020 and discussing the characteristics of the projected population.
Q2. Mortality and Standardisation
The estimated numbers of population by age on 30/6/2015 and the age specific death rate (ASDR) in 2015 for Germany and for Vietnam are given in the following table:
Using the data provided above, answer the following questions:
1. Estimate the crude death rates (CDR, per 1000) for Germany and for Vietnam in 2015. (Note: use 3 decimal places).
2. Using the 2015 Vietnamese population as the standard population, calculate the directly standardised death rates (SDR) for Germany and for Vietnam (Note: use 3 decimal places).
3. Using the 2015 Vietnamese population as the standard population, calculate the indirectly standardised death rates (I-SDR) for Germany and for Vietnam (Note: use 3 decimal places).
4. Discuss and comment on the differences in the mortality indicators you just calculated in Parts 1, 2 and 3, and discuss the rationale of using the standardisation method in analysing crude rates.
Attachment:- Demographic Fundamentals.rar