After plotting demand for four periods, an emergency room manager has concluded that a trend-adjusted exponential smoothing model is appropriate to predict future demand. The initial estimate of trend is based on the net change of 30 for the three periods from 1 to 4, for an average of +10 units.
| Period |
Actual |
Period |
Actual |
| 1 |
211 |
6 |
260 |
| 2 |
227 |
7 |
262 |
| 3 |
224 |
8 |
270 |
| 4 |
241 |
9 |
294 |
| 5 |
257 |
10 |
|
Use α=.5 and β=.1, and TAF of 250 for period 5. Obtain forecasts for periods 6 through 10.