The basic problem statement remains unchanged from problem 1. ADJO has determined that the coefficient of variation for its typi- cal project is 0.63. Use the data in Table 12.8 to perform a scenario analysis for the ADJO sofa product.
How does this change affect decisions within the universe of discourse?
Table 12.6: ADJO Expected Furniture Project Cash Flows
Year
|
Futons
|
Mattresses
|
Sofas
|
Chairs
|
Tables
|
0
|
($122,295.33)
|
($110,263.44)
|
($118,171.22)
|
($106,532.78)
|
($126,358.45)
|
1
|
$15,295.33
|
$18,222.00
|
$20,488.00
|
$15,688.00
|
$20,465.00
|
2
|
$15,689.44
|
$19,575.22
|
$20,989.00
|
$16,545.00
|
$20,877.00
|
3
|
$16,887.22
|
$21,898.27
|
$22,772.00
|
$18,200.00
|
$22,262.00
|
4
|
$18,605.47
|
$22,842.00
|
$23,545.00
|
$18,623.00
|
$23,753.00
|
5
|
$20,223.22
|
$23,223.00
|
$25,333.22
|
$19,363.00
|
$25,222.33
|
6
|
$22,565.27
|
$24,588.62
|
$27,121.00
|
$20,222.00
|
$25,989.24
|
7
|
$25,323.22
|
$25,000.00
|
$28,656.22
|
$21,323.00
|
$26,555.14
|
Table 12.7: Altered Mattresses Cash Flows
Year
|
Futons
|
Mattresses
|
Sofas
|
Chairs
|
Tables
|
0
|
($122,295.33)
|
($127,263.44)
|
($118,171.22)
|
($106,532.78)
|
($126,358.45)
|
1
|
$15,295.33
|
$23,222.00
|
$20,488.00
|
$15,688.00
|
$20,465.00
|
2
|
$15,689.44
|
$23,575.22
|
$20,989.00
|
$16,545.00
|
$20,877.00
|
3
|
$16,887.22
|
$25,898.27
|
$22,772.00
|
$18,200.00
|
$22,262.00
|
4
|
$18,605.47
|
$25,842.00
|
$23,545.00
|
$18,623.00
|
$23,753.00
|
5
|
$20,223.22
|
$27,223.00
|
$25,333.22
|
$19,363.00
|
$25,222.33
|
6
|
$22,565.27
|
$29,588.62
|
$27,121.00
|
$20,222.00
|
$25,989.24
|
7
|
$25,323.22
|
$33,000.00
|
$28,656.22
|
$21,323.00
|
$26,555.14
|
© 2010 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC
Table 12.8: ADJO Expected Sofa Project Cash Flows
Year
|
Worst Case
|
Most Likely Case
|
Best Case
|
0
|
($118,171.22)
|
($118,171.22)
|
($118,171.22)
|
1
|
$18,222.00
|
$20,488.00
|
$25,688.00
|
2
|
$19,575.22
|
$20,989.00
|
$26,545.00
|
3
|
$21,898.27
|
$22,772.00
|
$28,200.00
|
4
|
$22,842.00
|
$23,545.00
|
$29,623.00
|
5
|
$23,223.00
|
$25,333.22
|
$30,363.00
|
6
|
$24,588.62
|
$27,121.00
|
$31,222.00
|
7
|
$25,000.00
|
$28,656.22
|
$32,323.00
|