1. A time series with forecast values and error terms is presented in the following table. The mean error (ME) for this forecast is ___________.
Month
Actual
Forecast
Error
July
5
Aug
11
5
6.00
Sept
13
8.11
4.89
Oct
6
8.66
-2.66
Nov
5
7.862
-2.86
1.67
1.34
6.68
3.67
2.87
Question 2.2. In exponential smoothing models, the value of the smoothing constant may be any number between ___________.
-1 and 1
-5 and 5
0 and 1
0 and 10
0 and 100
Question 3.3. Use of a smoothing constant value less than 0.5 in an exponential smoothing model gives more weight to ___________.
the actual value for the current period
the actual value for the previous period
the forecast for the current period
the forecast for the previous period
the forecast for the next period
Question 4.4. Using a 3-month moving average, the forecast value for October made at the end of September in the following time series would be ____________.
July
12
Aug
5
Sept
7
Oct
11
7.67
8
9
6.89
7.25
Question 5.5. Using a 3-month moving average (with weights of 6, 3, and 1 for the most current value, next most current value, and oldest value, respectively), the forecast value for November in the following time series is ____________.
July
5
Aug
11
Sept
12
Oct
6
11.60
10.00
9.67
8.30
8.60
.
Question 6.6. The following graph of a time-series data suggests a _______________ trend.
linear
tangential
cosine
quadratic
flat
Question 7.7. Which of the following is not a component of time series data?
Trend
Seasonal fluctuations
Cyclical fluctuations
Normal fluctuations
Irregular fluctuations
Question 8.8. In an autoregressive forecasting model, the independent variable(s) is (are) ______.
time-lagged values of the dependent variable
first-order differences of the dependent variable
second-order, or higher, differences of the dependent variable
first-order quotients of the dependent variable
time-lagged values of the independent variable
Question 9.9. The motivation for using an index number is to ________________.
transform the data to a standard normal distribution
transform the data for a linear model
eliminate bias from the sample
reduce data to an easier-to-use, more convenient form
reduce the variance in the data
Question 10.10. Index numbers facilitate comparison of ____________.
means
data over time
variances
samples
deviations