Problem 1: Consider the following multifactor (APT) model security returns for a particular stock.
|
Factor
|
Factor Beta
|
Factor Risk Premium
|
|
Inflation
|
1.6
|
6%
|
|
Industrial production
|
1.1
|
7
|
|
Oil prices
|
0.7
|
2
|
a. If T-Bills currently offer a 5% yield, find the expected rate of return on this stick if the market views the stock as fairly priced.
b. Suppose that the market expected the values for the three macro factors given in column 1 below, but that the actual values out as given in column 2. Calculate the revised expectations for the rate of return on the stock once the "surprises" become known.
|
Factor
|
Expected Rate of Change
|
Actual Rate of Change
|
|
Inflation
|
8%
|
7%
|
|
Industrial production
|
7
|
8
|
|
Oil prices
|
5
|
0
|