Question: A box contains 5 tickets. An unknown number of them are red, the rest are green. Suppose that to start off with you think there are equality likely to be 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5 red tickets in the box.
a) Three tickets are drawn from the box with replacement between draws, The tickets drawn are red, green, and red. Given this information, what is the chance that there are actually 3 red tickets in the box?
b) What would your answer to (a) be if you knew the draws were made without replacement?