A bank is in the midst of a highly competitive market environment and over the past few years has created a number of new products to improve its market share. The economy has been booming but there are emerging signs that growth could slow over the next year or so. The risk manager does not have much empirical experience from which to infer the long-term performance of these new products. Management wants risk management to reduce its head count in an effort to reduce expenses and at the same time find ways to bring greater efficiencies to credit underwriting. What concept best describes is a good example of the issues facing this risk manager and why?