Problem on maintaining dividend

Question

Jackson Company has 6 million shares of common stock selling at $55 each. It also has $120 million in long-term bonds with coupon 7%, selling at 90. The tax rate of Jackson is 33%. Next year its EBIT is expected to be $25 million with a standard deviation of $7 million. The company plans to continue its $1.60 dividend per share. Jackson also wants to add $4 million to its total retained earnings next year. Find the probability that it will be able to maintain its dividend.

Answer 1

Dividend to be paid = $1.6*6 million = $9.6 million

Dividend requirement = $9.6 million/(1 – 0.33) = $14.33 million

Retained earnings needed = $4 million

Retained earnings requirement = $4 million/(1 – 0.4) = $5.97 million

Interest expense requirement = $120 million*0.07 = $8.4 million

Total requirement = $28.7 million

In order to determine the probability,

Z = (28.7 – 25)/7 = 0.5284
P(z) = 70.14%

This is the probability that Jackson will default in its payment and hence the probability that it will be able to maintain its dividend is 29.86%