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Probability Distributions and Data Modeling

1. A popular resort hotel has 300 rooms and is usually fully booked. About 4% of the time a reservation is canceled before 6:00 p.m. deadline with no penalty. What is the probability that at least 280 rooms will be occupied? Use binomial distribution to find the exact value and the normal approximation to the binomial and compare your answers.

2. The number and frequency of Atlantic hurricanes annually from 1940 through 2007 is shown here.

NUMBER    0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Frequency 5 16 19 13 3 5 4 2 1

a) Find the probabilities of 0-8 hurricanes each season using data.

b) Assuming a Poisson distribution and using the mean number of hurricanes per season from the empirical data, compute the probabilities of experiencing 0-8 hurricanes in a season.

Compare these to your answer to part (a). How good does a Poisson distribution model this phenomenon?

3. The distribution of SAT scores in math for an incoming class of business students has a mean of 580 and standard deviation of 25. Assume that the scores are normally distributed.

  1. Find the probability that an individual's score is less than 550.
  2. Find the probability that an individual's score is between 560 and 600.
  3. Find the probability that an individual's score is greater than 620.
  4. What % of students will have scored better than 700?
  5. Find the standardized values for students scoring 500, 600, and 700 on the test.

4. Historical data show that customers who download music from a popular web service spend approximately $20 per month, with a standard deviation of $4. Find the probability that a customer will spend at least $15 per month. If the company samples 100 customers, find the mean and standard deviation of the number who spend at least $15 per month. What is the probability that at least 40% of them will spend a t least $15 per month?

 

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