How you can predict future evolution of value of shares
Could we suppose that, as we cannot predict the future evolution of the value of shares, a good estimation would be to consider this constant during the next five years?
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Such affirmation is an error. The relation among the value of the shares of various years is: Et = Et-1 (1+Ket) – CFact. The shares value is constant (Et = Et-1) only when CFact = Et-1 Ket. It happens in non-growing perpetuities.
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The share price of Cheung Kong (Holdings) Limited is currently at $100. Over each of the next two three-month periods, you expect its price will either increase by 10% or fall by 10% in each three-month period. If the Hong Kong interbank offered rate is 8% per annum w
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