How you can predict future evolution of value of shares
Could we suppose that, as we cannot predict the future evolution of the value of shares, a good estimation would be to consider this constant during the next five years?
Expert
Such affirmation is an error. The relation among the value of the shares of various years is: Et = Et-1 (1+Ket) – CFact. The shares value is constant (Et = Et-1) only when CFact = Et-1 Ket. It happens in non-growing perpetuities.
According to what I read inside a book, market efficiency hypothesis means that the expected average value of variations is zero in the shares price. Thus, the best estimate of the future price of a share is its price now, as this incorporates all the available inform
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