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How are you able to measure real probabilities

How are you able to measure real probabilities?

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In classical stochastic differential equation models it implies knowing the real drift rate, frequently denoted with µ for equities. It can be very hard, very harder than measuring volatility. Is this even possible to say whether we are in bear market or a bull? Frequently not! And you require to project forward, again still harder, and harder than also forecasting volatility.

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